Israel Prepares for Major Gaza Offensive as Hamas Rejects Trump Disarmament Plan in Cairo

Hamas refuses to disarm under the Trump Gaza plan, prompting the IDF to ramp up airstrikes. Discover why a major offensive may be imminent before the October election.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 30, 2026, 5:22 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from FDD (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

The Failure of the Disarmament Overtures

Negotiations in Cairo have reached a critical impasse as Hamas leadership continues to reject the disarmament requirements of President Donald Trump’s Gaza rehabilitation plan. Despite being offered immunity and potential safe passage abroad, the militant group has attempted to relitigate the sequencing of the peace framework, demanding Israeli territorial withdrawals before any surrender of arms. Nickolay Mladenov, the chief envoy for the Board of Peace, has been unable to secure a commitment from the faction to renounced terrorism in exchange for an international reconstruction project. This diplomatic stalemate has prompted the Israeli government to shift its focus back toward military solutions to ensure the total elimination of the group's governance.

Escalating Precision Strikes

Over the last 14 days, the Israel Defense Forces have conducted near-daily airstrikes across the Gaza Strip, targeting a wide array of high-value objectives. These operations have resulted in dozens of fatalities, including rocket squads, weapons smugglers, and senior commanders directly linked to the October 7, 2023, attacks. Notably, the IAF has also targeted Palestinian police units operating on the Hamas-controlled side of the "Yellow Line." These personnel are accused of using their positions to enforce recruitment, manage illicit funds, and intimidate local dissidents to maintain the current regime’s grip on the battered territory.

Reconstitution of Personnel vs. Material Depletion

While military intelligence estimates that Hamas has successfully mobilized approximately 27,000 gunmen—a figure nearing its pre-war strength—the group remains severely hampered by a lack of hardware. The IDF’s current control over the Gaza-Egypt border has effectively severed the supply lines required for heavy weaponry and advanced rocketry. Furthermore, the destruction of indigenous foundries during previous combat operations has forced the group to rely primarily on small arms and improvised explosive devices. This material weakness was evident during recent regional conflicts, where the group failed to launch significant rocket barrages in support of its Iranian sponsors.