Global Aviation Under Siege: Tycoon Warns of Imminent Bankruptcies as War Toll Mounts

Billionaire Gediminas Ziemelis warns that skyrocketing fuel prices and plummeting demand due to the US-Iran conflict could lead to global airline bankruptcies within weeks.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 4, 2026, 5:44 AM EDT

Source: news.com.au

The "One Month" Warning

Gediminas Ziemelis, owner of Avia Solutions Group—the world's largest aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) provider—noted that bookings for the upcoming European summer season are "significantly lower" than previous years. His firm, which typically leases its 145-strong fleet to major European carriers to meet peak tourist demand, is now preparing to relocate the bulk of its aircraft to more stable markets in Asia and Brazil.

"If the war lasts more than one month, we may see potential first bankruptcies of airlines across the globe," Ziemelis told Bloomberg. He emphasized that the current geopolitical risk is unlike anything the industry has seen in recent decades, with the closure of Middle Eastern airspace forcing massive rerouting and cancellations.

The Fuel Price Surge

The primary driver of the industry's instability is the soaring cost of oil. Fuel typically accounts for 25% of an airline's operating costs, but prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began on February 28, 2026.

Following recent statements from the U.S. administration indicating that military operations against Iran could continue for several more weeks, oil benchmarks reached critical levels: