U.S. Bancorp Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $72 Amid Critical Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

U.S. Bancorp raises 2026 Brent crude forecast to $72, warns of $100+ oil if Strait of Hormuz closure persists or energy infrastructure is hit.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 5, 2026, 5:54 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from LEADERSHIP Media Group

Escalating Geopolitical Risks Drive Upward Price Revisions

U.S. Bancorp, the fifth largest banking institution in the United States, has officially adjusted its energy market outlook to reflect the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East. On Wednesday, the bank raised its average Brent crude oil price forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $71 per barrel, with internal estimates suggesting prices could reach $80 per barrel as early as March. This revision marks a significant $10 increase from previous annual forecasts, driven primarily by the near-total blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bank’s latest assessment, the current risk premium is a direct consequence of the regional instability that has threatened the world’s most critical maritime energy corridor.

Potential for Triple Digit Pricing Amid Infrastructure Threats

The updated forecast from USB includes several contingency scenarios that could see crude prices move into triple-digit territory. Analysts warned that any targeted strikes on regional energy infrastructure, specifically naming Qatar’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities, could immediately propel Brent prices above $90 per barrel. Furthermore, if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes a prolonged engagement, the bank predicts that market volatility will likely drive prices past the $100 threshold. Despite these looming threats, the bank has maintained its 2027 and 2028 forecasts at $70 and $75 respectively, though it acknowledged that the current risks remain tilted heavily to the upside.

Market Resilience Tested as Supply Lines Tighten

Brent crude has already shown significant movement in response to the tightening supply lines, trading near $82.32 per barrel following its highest close since early 2025. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has surged to approximately $74.73 per barrel, reaching price levels not seen since June of the previous year. USB analysts noted that while a sudden de-escalation of hostilities could unwind some of this risk premium, the floor for oil prices has shifted. According to the bank, it is highly unlikely that prices will retreat to the $60 per barrel level observed at the beginning of the year, as the structural risks to global transit routes remain embedded in the current market valuation.