Goldman Sachs Trims 2026 Oil Forecasts as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Eases Geopolitical Risk Premium

Goldman Sachs lowers Brent and WTI oil forecasts for 2026 following the U.S.-Iran truce. Read why the bank remains wary of a potential $115 spike.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 9, 2026, 8:27 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Reuters

Recalibrating Global Energy Projections

Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs revised its near-term energy outlook late Wednesday, April 8, 2026, in response to the rapid de-escalation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The bank adjusted its second-quarter forecasts for Brent crude downward from $99 to $90 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) expectations were nudged from $91 to $87. This shift reflects a significant reduction in the "risk premium" that had dominated energy markets since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28. Analysts noted that the two-week ceasefire, brokered in Islamabad, has provided the first meaningful opportunity for markets to price in a potential return to regular shipping volumes.

Strait of Hormuz and the Flow of Crude

A critical factor in Goldman's revised forecast is the anticipated resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank cited early signs of edging oil flows as the primary justification for its "downward nudge." Brent crude prices have already plummeted more than 11% this week as traders reacted to President Donald Trump's announcement of a bilateral suspension of strikes. However, the bank remains cautious, noting that while the "front of the curve" has eased, the physical reality of the blockade remains complex. On Thursday, prices saw a slight rebound as doubts emerged regarding the durability of the truce and the extent of Iranian coordination required for safe passage.

Natural Gas Prices and LNG Normalization

Beyond crude oil, Goldman Sachs significantly lowered its second-quarter forecast for the European benchmark TTF gas price, dropping it to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from a previous estimate of 70 EUR/MWh. This revision is based on the assumption that liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin a gradual normalization process by mid-April. Europe remains highly vulnerable to disruptions in this corridor, and the bank warned that any significant delays in restoring traffic or reports of damaged production infrastructure could quickly send prices back above the 75 EUR/MWh threshold.