Strategic Risks of Proposed Kharg Island Seizure Threaten to Entrap United States in Extended Iranian War of Attrition

Experts warn that a U.S. seizure of Kharg Island could lead to a costly war of attrition, exposing troops to Iranian drones and artillery with little gain.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 26, 2026, 5:03 PM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)

The Perils of a High Stakes Maritime Seizure

As the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires, the Trump administration has reportedly shifted its focus toward the potential seizure and occupation of Kharg Island. This vital energy hub, responsible for nearly 90 percent of Iran,s prewar crude exports, is being viewed by Washington as a singular objective that could bring a swift conclusion to the three week old conflict. However, experts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argue that such a move would likely achieve the opposite effect, incurring immense operational costs without securing a definitive strategic advantage. The arrival of thousands of Marines in the Middle East marks a dangerous escalation toward a mission that could extend the war indefinitely rather than ending it.

Operational Vulnerabilities and the Threat of Proximity

Occupying Kharg Island would place American forces just 20 miles off the Iranian coast, leaving them highly vulnerable to a wide array of kinetic threats. While U.S. and Israeli strikes have degraded Tehran,s long range capabilities, the regime maintains a significant arsenal of multiple launch rocket systems and cannon artillery capable of reaching the island. According to Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan, the proximity to the mainland ensures that U.S. troops would remain under constant fire from assets that are difficult to eliminate through air power alone. This geographic reality transforms the island from a strategic asset into a target rich environment for Iranian forces.

The Emergence of Unmanned and First Person View Threats

A particularly underappreciated danger in any occupation of Kharg Island is the potential use of first person view (FPV) drones, which have been utilized with devastating effect on modern battlefields. Iran could deploy unjammable fiber optic drones or quadcopters with a 20 to 30 mile range to target individual U.S. service members and defense systems in real time. The psychological impact of such attacks, often recorded and used for propaganda, would increase the political costs for the Trump administration. Furthermore, ongoing Russian intelligence sharing and satellite imagery could significantly enhance the lethality and precision of these Iranian drone and missile strikes against American positions.