Strategic Experts Warn Trump Administration That Seizing Iran’s Kharg Island Could Trigger Costly War of Attrition

Analysts argue that seizing Iran’s Kharg Island would be a high-cost strategic error, exposing US Marines to asymmetric threats and prolonging the Gulf war.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 28, 2026, 8:51 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from FDD's Long War Journal

The Looming Deadline and Potential Military Escalation

The conflict in the Persian Gulf is reaching a critical inflection point as President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires. In a move that signals a potential transition from maritime skirmishes to ground operations, at least 3,000 U.S. Marines and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division have been positioned in the region. Reports indicate the administration is considering a seizure of Kharg Island—the terminal through which 90 percent of Iran's crude oil flowed prior to the war—as a means to force a decisive end to the four-week-old conflict.

Vulnerabilities of an Island Occupation

While U.S. and Israeli forces have successfully degraded much of Iran’s long-range ballistic missile and drone capabilities, Kharg Island’s proximity to the Iranian mainland presents unique tactical dangers. Located only 20 miles off the coast, American troops occupying the island would be within range of Iranian multiple-launch rocket systems and cannon artillery. Furthermore, analysts highlight the emerging threat of first-person view (FPV) drones and fiber-optic guided munitions, which could allow Iranian forces to target individual U.S. service members in real-time for propaganda purposes.

Strained Naval Assets and Protection Requirements

The maritime logistics required to sustain an occupation of Kharg Island would further tax an already overextended U.S. Navy. Destroyers would be diverted from their primary mission of escorting commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to provide missile defense for the island and its resupply craft. This diversion of resources is expected to delay, rather than accelerate, the reopening of the vital waterway. Experts warn that keeping ships in the western end of the Gulf, close to the Iranian coastline, increases the risk of deadly anti-ship attacks.