Property Sector Leader Warns Reserve Bank Against Hawkish Response to Temporary Middle East Oil Volatility

Seeff Property Group Chairman calls on the Reserve Bank to pause rate hikes, citing temporary oil volatility and a fragile South African property market recovery.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 25, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from BusinessTech

Property Sector Challenges Monetary Policy Hawkishness

The leadership of South Africa’s private property sector has issued a direct appeal to the South African Reserve Bank to resist the growing market momentum toward interest rate hikes. Samuel Seeff, chairman of the Seeff Property Group, cautioned the Monetary Policy Committee against reacting too aggressively to the recent bond selloff, which has reached levels not seen since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. While global volatility and surging energy costs have led markets to price out previously anticipated rate cuts, Seeff maintains that the central bank must distinguish between long-term inflationary trends and short-term geopolitical shocks that could prematurely derail domestic growth.

Market Reversal and the Shift to Hike Projections

The financial landscape has shifted dramatically since mid-February, with forward-rate agreements now signaling a potential 25-basis-point increase by year-end. This represents a violent reversal from earlier projections that suggested up to four rate cuts were on the horizon over the next 18 months. Data from Ashburton Investments highlights a 183-basis-point swing in the three-month forward rate, moving from a forecast of 6.07% to 7.90%. Despite these mounting pressures, Seeff argues that the volatility stemming from the Middle Eastern war should be viewed as a transient factor rather than a fundamental reason to tighten monetary policy.

Divergence Between Economic Indicators and Market Speculation

Proponents of a rate pause point to South Africa’s actual economic data as a counter-argument to hawkish market sentiment. The rand has remained relatively resilient, maintaining a position below R17 to the US dollar, while headline inflation eased to 3.0% in February from 3.5% in January. Seeff expressed concern that the central bank missed a critical window to stimulate the economy in early 2026 when inflation figures were highly favorable. By failing to act then, the Reserve Bank now faces a scenario where interest rates remain at risk due to external energy spikes that do not reflect domestic consumer behavior or excessive spending.