South African Inflation Forecasted to Reach 5% Target Ceiling as Diesel Prices Surge Toward R40

Economist Dawie Roodt warns of a sharp inflation spike in South Africa driven by a potential R10 diesel price hike and global oil supply shocks.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 15, 2026, 3:59 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from CapeTalk

Projections of a Sustained Inflationary Shock

South Africa is bracing for a sharp acceleration in consumer prices following a period of relative stability in early 2024. According to Dawie Roodt, the Chief Economist at Efficient Group, the national inflation rate is projected to climb from approximately 3% in February to roughly 3.3% in March. However, the most severe impact is anticipated in April, with Roodt warning that inflation could reach 4.5% or even 5%. This upward trajectory suggests that the cost of living will likely remain above the South African Reserve Bank's preferred target range for several months, driven largely by external energy pressures.

The Looming Crisis at the Fuel Pump

The primary catalyst for this economic shift is a massive under-recovery in fuel prices slated for May. Market projections indicate that petrol could increase by approximately R6 per litre, while diesel faces a much more drastic surge of roughly R10 per litre. If these forecasts materialize, diesel prices could reach the R40 per litre mark. Roodt explained that diesel is particularly vulnerable to these fluctuations because its pricing structure is less tightly regulated than petrol, making it more susceptible to the immediate shocks of the global oil market.

Global Oil Volatility and Supply Constraints

The current price instability is rooted in a shaky global oil outlook and worsening supply conditions. Even if international crude prices begin to stabilize in the coming weeks, economists expect the domestic fallout to linger. According to analysis provided during the CapeTalk interview, the lag between global market shifts and local price adjustments means that South African consumers will feel the effects of the current shock well into the second half of the year. This supply side pressure is creating a difficult environment for the South African State finances, which are already under significant strain.