One Month of Regional War: US-Israeli Offensive Stalls as Missile Stockpiles Hit Critical Depletion Levels

A month into the Iran war, US and Israeli missile stocks hit critical lows as Tehran maintains 60% of its drone and missile arsenal.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 28, 2026, 12:45 PM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Anadolu Agency

The Financial and Material Cost of Attrition

The opening month of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran has exposed the "Command of the Reload" as the primary governing factor of the conflict. According to an analysis by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the US and its allies expended 11,294 munitions in just the first 16 days of the war. This rapid burn rate carries a staggering $26 billion price tag, highlighting a strategic imbalance: Western forces are utilizing multi-million-dollar interceptors to neutralize Iranian drones and missiles that cost a fraction of the price. Experts suggest this pace is unsustainable, as the conflict shifts from a rapid strike operation to a grueling regional confrontation.

Israel’s Defensive Shield Under Extreme Strain

Israel's sophisticated multi-layered air defense system is facing an unprecedented existential challenge. Data indicates that the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors, vital for stopping ballistic missiles, reached an 81% depletion rate within the first two weeks of the war. Projections from military analysts suggest that these critical stocks, along with the David’s Sling "Stunner" interceptors, could be entirely exhausted by early April. While the systems have successfully absorbed the majority of the 5,693 strikes launched by Iran and its proxies, the limited remaining inventory has led to warnings of a potential military collapse if a clear exit strategy is not established.

Iran’s Resilient "Kamikaze" Arsenal

Despite a month of heavy bombardment, Iran’s offensive capabilities remain formidable. Tehran entered the conflict with a massive stockpile, including an estimated 80,000 Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones and up to 6,000 ballistic missiles. Analyst Ibrahim Jalal reports that Iran has utilized only 30% to 40% of its total arsenal thus far, with a domestic production capacity that adds 1,500 missiles and 2,000 drones annually. While daily strike rates have dropped 80% from their initial peak, experts believe this is a strategic "rationing" by Tehran to prolong the war or prepare for high-leverage peace negotiations.