Minister Warns of 'Unpredictable' 20 Percent Grocery Price Spike Amid Iran War

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins warns grocery prices may spike as the Iran war fuels transport shocks. Farmers predict a 20% jump by Anzac Day 2026.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 15, 2026, 8:03 AM EDT

Source: news.com.au

Farmers Sound the Alarm Over Input Costs

The warning stems from a dire outlook shared by NSW Farmers and various independent supermarket chains. Producers have stated they are reaching a breaking point, unable to absorb the rapidly rising costs of transport and production. With the Iran war causing significant diesel fuel shocks, industry representatives suggest that a price jump of 20 percent—or more for specific products—is a mathematical inevitability without further intervention.

Minister Collins, speaking on Sky News’ Sunday Agenda, acknowledged the severity of the farmers' concerns. While she noted that current Treasury modelling suggests a more conservative impact of 3% to 4% based on diesel input alone, she conceded that the "unpredictable" nature of the war makes any firm guarantee impossible.

Government Shielding Measures

In response to the mounting economic pressure, the Labor government has highlighted several measures intended to cushion the blow for Australian households:

Fuel Excise Cuts: Temporary reductions to help lower the cost of transport for producers.