Aviation Under Pressure: Global Jet Fuel Prices Double as War in Iran Disrupts Strategic Supply Chains

et fuel prices have doubled amid the war in Iran, forcing airlines to raise fares, hike baggage fees, and cut routes. Experts warn of systemic shortages in Europe and Asia.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 16, 2026, 10:55 AM EDT

Source: NPR

The "Double Whammy" of the Hormuz Blockade

The Strait of Hormuz acts as a dual-action chokepoint for the aviation sector. First, the Persian Gulf houses some of the world’s most critical refineries that export finished jet fuel; the current disruption prevents this processed product from reaching international markets. Second, the blockage prevents raw crude oil from reaching massive refineries in Asia. According to George Shaw, an analyst at Kpler, this "double whammy" has effectively neutralized the world’s top three jet fuel exporters: China (which has banned exports), South Korea (facing crude shortages), and Kuwait (which is physically unable to ship its product).

Europe and Asia Face Potential Systemic Shortages

The regional impact of the crisis is uneven but severe. In Asia, several nations have already begun rationing fuel and restricting exports to stabilize domestic supplies. Europe is also on high alert; Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently cautioned that the continent may only have approximately six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining. The Airports Council International Europe has petitioned the European Commission for urgent intervention, warning that a failure to resume stable passage through the Strait by the end of April could lead to a systemic fuel shortage across the European Union.

Interconnected Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Market

Despite being the world's largest oil producer, the United States is not insulated from the shock. The U.S. West Coast, particularly California, has grown dependent on jet fuel imports from Asia due to the closure of local refineries. While refineries in Texas and Louisiana produce abundant fuel, the logistical cost of transporting it through the Panama Canal to Los Angeles often makes it more expensive than importing from South Korea. Consequently, the disruption in Asian production is now threatening the supply chain for major West Coast hubs.