Macau Casinos Outpace Analysts' Expectations with 15% March Surge; Full-Year 2026 Forecasts Revised Upward
Macau casinos are on track to beat 2025 revenue after a 15% spike in March. See why CBRE raised its 2026 GGR growth forecast to 8.3%.
By: AXL Media
Published: Apr 8, 2026, 11:14 AM EDT
Source: Information for this report was sourced from the iGB
March Momentum Beats Market Estimates
Macau’s gaming industry generated MOP22.62 billion ($2.8 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March 2026, marking a significant 15% year-on-year increase. This figure notably outperformed analyst expectations, which had pegged growth at approximately 11%. The monthly result also represented a nearly 10% increase over February, a climb attributed to the lasting "tail" of Lunar New Year celebrations and an influx of "base mass" players. For the first quarter of 2026, total GGR reached MOP65.87 billion, a 14.3% rise compared to the same period in 2025.
CBRE Raises Full-Year Projections
The strong start to the year has led CBRE Equity Research to update its annual forecast. Analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh now anticipate 2026 GGR will grow by 8.3% year-on-year, up from their previous estimate of 6%. According to CBRE, for the market to fall back to the more conservative consensus levels, revenue would have to slow to a mere 3.5% growth for the remainder of the year—a scenario they consider unlikely given the current stabilization of the Chinese economy and targeted stimulus measures from Beijing aimed at high-quality development.
Mass Market and Entertainment as Primary Drivers
The shift away from the high-rolling VIP sector toward the "premium mass" and "base mass" segments continues to pay dividends for Macau’s concessionaires. Operators are increasingly relying on superstar entertainment to fill off-peak periods. For instance, in late March, the 14,000-seat Venetian Arena was sold out for a concert by K-pop group ATEEZ, while rapper Mark Tuan drew over 5,000 fans to Studio City. CBRE notes that these non-gaming investments are successfully attracting a younger, diverse demographic that had not fully returned in previous post-pandemic years.