Groundbreaking Research at EBCC15 Shows Circulating Tumor DNA Post-Treatment Predicts Breast Cancer Relapse Risk

New research shows ctDNA in blood after pre-surgery treatment signals a high risk of breast cancer return, offering a path to more personalized oncology care.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 27, 2026, 7:21 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer

Liquid Biopsies Offering a New Frontier in Post-Surgical Prognostic Accuracy

The detection of circulating tumor DNA, or ctDNA, in the bloodstream is emerging as a powerful predictor of breast cancer recurrence, particularly when identified following the completion of neoadjuvant therapies. Research presented at the 15th European Breast Cancer Conference in Barcelona highlights that these microscopic genetic fragments serve as an early warning system for relapse, spreading, or the development of new malignancies. By analyzing blood plasma at the critical junction between pre-surgery treatment and the operation itself, medical professionals may soon be able to identify which patients harbor a high risk of the disease returning, even when traditional imaging suggests the treatment was successful.

Analyzing Large Scale Patient Events Through Multi-Center Collaboration

Dr. Elisa Agostinetto and her team at the Institut Jules Bordet, in coordination with the Instituto Nazionale dei Tumori, conducted a pooled analysis of 81 patients to track the lifecycle of ctDNA across a seven-year follow-up period. The study is notable for reporting the largest number of clinical events to date regarding ctDNA in individual breast cancer patients, including instances of metastasis and mortality. Most participants in the study presented with aggressive cancer subtypes, such as triple-negative breast cancer, which often affects younger women and historically poses significant challenges for long-term remission and effective treatment planning.

Quantifying the Statistical Surge in Relapse Probability Post-Therapy

The data indicates a stark contrast in outcomes based on the timing of ctDNA detection, with the most significant prognostic value appearing at the end of neoadjuvant treatment. While over half of the patients showed presence of the DNA fragments at the start of the study, the persistence of these markers after chemotherapy or hormone therapy was associated with a 3.5-fold increase in the risk of recurrence. This correlation remained robust even after researchers adjusted for other clinical variables, including the patient's age and the original size of the tumor, marking ctDNA as a potentially independent and highly reliable biomarker for future clinical practice.