France Prepares for "Open War" as Chief of Defense Staff Cites Imminent Russian Threat

General Fabien Mandon secures a €36 billion defense budget boost for France, citing intelligence that Russia's army will grow to 1.9 million by 2030.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 9, 2026, 11:32 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Anadolu Agency

The Strategic Pivot Toward Continental Defense

In a stark address to the French National Assembly on April 9, 2026, General Fabien Mandon defined the "permanence of a Russian threat" as the central challenge facing the French Republic. Shifting away from a decades-long focus on counter-terrorism and expeditionary missions in Africa, the Chief of Defense Staff emphasized that the military must now prioritize high-intensity conflict on the European continent. Mandon’s rhetoric reflects a significant hardening of the French military stance, coming five months after he sparked national debate by suggesting the country must be prepared to "lose its children" in a potential European war. He framed the current geopolitical climate as a "period of danger" that requires immediate, transparent mobilization of national resources.

Intelligence Projections of Russian Rearmament

General Mandon provided lawmakers with detailed intelligence estimates regarding Moscow’s military trajectory over the next four years. According to French Defense Staff projections, the Russian Armed Forces are expected to expand from 1.3 million personnel in 2025 to 1.9 million by 2030. Furthermore, the Kremlin is anticipated to nearly double its heavy tank fleet, rising from 4,000 to approximately 7,000 units, while maintaining a naval force of 240 combat ships. Mandon clarified that these figures were "not dogmatic" but informed by rigorous intelligence, illustrating a Russian state that is rapidly shifting its industrial base to a permanent war footing.

Expanding the 2024–2030 Military Programming Law

To counter these rising threats, the French government has introduced an update to the Loi de Programmation Militaire (LPM). The revised legislation adds €36 billion (approximately $42 billion) to the existing €413 billion defense budget originally allocated for the 2024–2030 period. This supplementary funding is earmarked for critical gaps in conventional and high-tech defense, including the procurement of 10,000 combat drones and the development of a sovereign conventional ballistic long-range strike capability. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu noted that the law will also introduce a "national security alert" mechanism, allowing for the rapid domestic deployment of armed forces if the security situation deteriorates.