Commentary: Crude Oil's Catch-22—How Market Pricing Prolongs the Gulf Conflict

Brent crude at $111 is masking a 12 million bpd supply gap. Columnist Clyde Russell explores how market pricing may inadvertently prolong the Gulf conflict.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 23, 2026, 6:31 AM EDT

Source: Reuters

The Pricing Paradox

While a 54% rise in Brent prices since late February sounds dramatic, it remains significantly below the $139.13 peak seen during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This "restraint" in paper trading masks a grim physical reality:

The 12 Million Barrel Gap: Unlike the 2022 crisis, where Russian oil was merely rerouted, the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively removed 12 million to 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products from the global market.

Refined Product Stress: Physical traders in Asia are already signaling the alarm. Singapore jet fuel hit a record $225.62 per barrel last week—more than doubling in less than a month—indicating that the shortage of usable fuel is far more acute than crude futures suggest.

Temporary Bandages: IEA stockpile releases and U.S. sanctions waivers for "oil on water" are seen by analysts as temporary measures that cannot replace the massive daily flows usually transiting the Gulf.

A Maze of Conflicting Interests