Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak Predicts Months of Global Oil Market Volatility Even After Potential Reopening of Strait of Hormuz

Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak says it will take months to rebalance global oil even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens following the deep energy crisis.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 27, 2026, 8:15 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Anadolu Agency

The Protracted Timeline for Global Energy Recovery

The global oil market is facing a structural crisis that cannot be resolved with a simple ceasefire agreement, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. In a candid interview with the VGTRK broadcasting company, Novak asserted that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, it would take several months for supply levels to stabilize. This assessment stems from the sheer volume of energy resources that have been withheld from the market since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, 2026. Novak’s comments reflect a growing concern among major oil-producing nations that the current "deep crisis" has permanently altered short-term logistical reliability.

Vessel Accumulation and Logistical Bottlenecks

A primary factor slowing the potential recovery is the massive congestion of shipping traffic currently trapped or diverted near the Persian Gulf. Novak highlighted that a "large number of ships" have accumulated in and around the Strait of Hormuz, creating a maritime bottleneck that will take weeks to clear once navigation is restored. This backlog of tankers, many of which are carrying millions of barrels of crude destined for Asian markets, represents a significant portion of the world’s floating storage. The process of unloading, refueling, and repositioning these fleets is expected to create a secondary wave of logistical delays that will ripple through the global economy for months.

The Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Since the initial US-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian retaliatory measures, Tehran has utilized its strategic position to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade has effectively severed one of the world’s most critical energy arteries, leading to a "large global undersupply" that has disproportionately affected energy-dependent nations in Asia. Novak noted that the cumulative loss of barrels during this period has exhausted global reserves, meaning that a simple resumption of flow will not immediately satisfy the pent-up demand or replenish the depleted stockpiles of major importing countries.