Zimbabwe Records US$1.01 Billion Export Surge to Maintain February Trade Surplus Despite Rising Global Oil Volatility and Gold Route Risks

Zimbabwe's exports hit US$1.01 billion in February, led by gold, while rising oil prices and import growth narrow the trade surplus.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 31, 2026, 11:34 AM EDT

Source: The information in this article was sourced from Bulawayo24 News

Sustaining the Trade Surplus Amidst Import Growth

National trade data for February 2026 reveals that Zimbabwe has maintained its surplus position, though the margin is tightening due to aggressive import demand. Exports reached US$1.01 billion, a steady increase from the US$969.5 million recorded in January. However, this 4.1% growth was outpaced by a 12% surge in imports, which rose to US$963.1 million. While the country remains in the black for now, the faster pace of inbound goods suggests an evolving economic landscape where industrial demand and rising commodity prices are testing the trade balance's resilience.

Gold: The Economic Bedrock and Emerging Risks

Gold continues to function as the backbone of the Zimbabwean economy, accounting for a commanding 45.7% of total export shipments in February. The global bullion hub of Dubai remains the primary destination for these exports, absorbing approximately US$468.4 million. Despite this strong performance, economists caution that such heavy concentration in a single commodity and market presents a structural risk. Ongoing geopolitical instability involving the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens to disrupt traditional gold settlement systems and trade routes, which could lead to near-term volatility in Zimbabwe's primary revenue stream.

The Rising Cost of Energy and Industrial Imports

On the import side, fuel and petroleum-related products represent the largest expenditure, making up 18.6% of the national import bill. With global oil prices currently trending upward, the financial pressure on the trade balance is expected to intensify. Beyond energy, machinery emerged as the second-largest import category, a signal of sustained domestic investment and industrialization efforts within the Zimbabwean economy. As global supply chains adjust to new inflationary pressures, the cost of these essential capital goods may further narrow the country's surplus.