Waseda University Study Debunks Link Between Higher Education and Declining Fertility Rates in Japan

Waseda University study uses Firehorse superstition to prove that women’s education has minimal impact on Japan’s declining marriage and fertility rates.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 28, 2026, 4:30 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from EurekAlert!

Challenging the Narrative of the Over-Educated Professional

In many East Asian societies, a persistent media and policy narrative suggests that women’s pursuit of higher education and professional careers is the primary driver behind collapsing fertility rates. However, a collaborative research project led by Associate Professor Rong Fu of Waseda University indicates that this correlation may be misinterpreted. Despite Japan's total fertility rate reaching a historic low of 1.20 in 2024, the study demonstrates that education itself does not inherently discourage women from marriage or motherhood. Instead, the research points toward a disconnect between women's economic advancement and the static nature of traditional gender norms and institutional support.

The Firehorse Year as a Natural Laboratory

To isolate the effects of education from other social variables, the research team leveraged a unique cultural phenomenon: the 1966 "Year of the Firehorse." Superstition suggests that women born under this sign possess temperaments that lead to marital discord, which caused a significant "baby bust" as parents sought to avoid births during that year. This created a "mismatch cohort" of women born in early 1967 who faced significantly less competition for educational resources because they were grouped with the smaller 1966 cohort. This exogenous shock allowed researchers to observe women who gained higher educational attainment purely due to reduced competition rather than personal or social preferences.

Negligible Impact on Family Planning Timelines

The data revealed that the women who benefited from these increased educational opportunities did not abandon family life. According to the study, more-educated women delayed their marriage by a mere two weeks and their first childbirth by only 40 days on average. By the time these women reached their mid-40s, their rates of marriage and motherhood were virtually identical to those of their less-educated peers. This suggests that while education may slightly shift the timing of family expansion, it does not lead to a permanent rejection of family formation or an increase in lifelong singlehood.