U.S. Recession Fears Emerge as Primary Risk for Global Insurers Amid Shifting Macroeconomic Landscape

Goldman Sachs Asset Management survey finds 52% of insurers fear a U.S. recession while pivoting to private equity and asset-backed finance for higher returns.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 28, 2026, 9:11 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Recessionary Anxiety Reaches New Heights

The specter of an economic slowdown has become the defining concern for the global insurance industry as it moves through 2026. According to Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) 15th annual survey, titled "Adaptation in Action," 55 percent of senior investment professionals now predict the United States will enter a recession within the next three years. This marks a notable increase from the 46 percent who held the same view just one year ago. As insurers manage approximately half of the world’s total insurance balance sheet assets, this collective shift in sentiment suggests a broad preparation for a more defensive fiscal period.

A Multi-Faceted Risk Environment

While recessionary fears lead the list of concerns, the risk landscape for 2026 is increasingly fragmented and interconnected. Geopolitical tensions were cited as a top risk by 52 percent of respondents, reflecting the ongoing instability in the Middle East and its impact on global trade. Furthermore, 46 percent of insurers flagged credit and equity market valuations as a significant threat, while 42 percent remain wary of persistent inflation. This "nuanced and complex" environment, as described by GSAM’s Jared Klyman, is forcing firms to adopt more disciplined asset selection processes to protect their long-term solvency.

Contradictory Optimism in Equity Markets

In a surprising contrast to their recessionary outlook, many insurers maintain a positive view of short-term market performance. The survey found that 55 percent of participants expect the S&P 500 to deliver total returns between 5 and 10 percent this year, with nearly a fifth of respondents forecasting even higher gains of up to 20 percent. This optimism is grounded in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain a fund rate between 3 and 3.5 percent, providing a stable enough backdrop for equities to thrive even as broader economic growth begins to moderate.