United States and Israel diverge on post war objectives for Iran following the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Following the elimination of the Supreme Leader, the US seeks regime transformation while Israel pushes for an overthrow, as Iran targets Gulf states in retaliation.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 4, 2026, 5:45 AM EST

Divergent strategies for a post-Khamenei Iran

The assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, an operation conducted by Tel Aviv with significant Washington support, has sparked a fundamental debate over the endgame of the conflict. The United States has framed its objective as a forced evolution of the regime’s nature and orientation. Washington appears open to the survival of certain state institutions provided they are led by internal factions willing to abandon the nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In contrast, the Israeli leadership has prioritized the complete dismantling of the current political system, expressing a willingness to accept the potential for domestic chaos and violence as a necessary trade-off for the removal of the existential threat.

Assessment of the "Old Iran" legacy

For nearly half a century, the Islamic Republic has operated as a revolutionary state, a model the United States is now determined to dismantle through overwhelming military force. The current campaign utilizes unprecedented firepower against both military and civilian infrastructure to eliminate high-ranking officials. By targeting the core leadership of the "Old Iran," the coalition aims to force a choice upon the remaining bureaucracy: adapt to international norms or face total collapse. Unlike the 2003 invasion of Iraq, there are currently no Western ground forces intended to occupy the territory, placing the burden of institutional survival on the Iranians themselves.

Institutional resilience and the Iraq model

Current U.S. policy reflects a desire to avoid the "Bremer model" of 2003, which saw the total dissolution of the Iraqi armed forces and state organs. American strategists recognize that Iran maintains functioning state institutions and a degree of internal political diversity that could facilitate a transition. The massive anti-government demonstrations observed throughout 2025 and early 2026 serve as evidence of an internal appetite for reform. The objective is to prevent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from devolving into fragmented, localized militia groups, which would significantly aggravate the security threat to the region.