United Nations and African Development Bank Warn of GDP Contraction as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Continental Trade

A joint UN and African Development Bank report warns that a prolonged conflict in the Gulf could shave 0.2 percent off Africa's GDP growth due to trade shocks.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 3, 2026, 9:48 AM EDT

Source: The information in this article was sourced from The arabweekly

Regional Conflict Threatens Continental Economic Stability

African economies are facing a heightened risk of a significant growth slowdown as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt global trade routes and energy markets. A comprehensive report released by the African Union, the African Development Bank, and two UN agencies suggests that a prolonged war exceeding six months could shave 0.2 percentage points off the continent's total GDP growth in 2026. Presented at a United Nations Economic Commission meeting in Tangier, Morocco, the document underscores how disruptions to shipping and fuel supplies are creating a ripple effect across African markets. The report warns that the longer the hostilities persist, the greater the likelihood of a systemic economic deceleration.

The Looming Fertilizer and Food Security Crisis

The conflict’s impact on agricultural inputs presents a more immediate threat to many African states than the volatility of oil prices. Disruptions to liquefied natural gas supplies from the Gulf are directly affecting the production of ammonia and urea, which are essential components for fertilizer. This supply constraint is occurring at a disastrous time, coinciding with the crucial March to May planting season for much of the continent. According to the report, the resulting spike in fertilizer costs and restricted availability could lead to decreased crop yields, potentially escalating into a severe food security and cost of living crisis characterized by rapidly rising food prices.

Trade Vulnerabilities and Shifting Logistics Hubs

The Middle East remains a vital economic partner for the continent, accounting for approximately 15.8 percent of Africa’s imports and nearly 11 percent of its exports. As traditional shipping routes become increasingly hazardous, the report identifies a significant shift in regional logistics. Ports such as Maputo in Mozambique, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Durban in South Africa are seeing increased traffic as transport is rerouted away from conflict zones. In East Africa, Kenya is solidifying its position as a logistics hub through Lamu Port, while Ethiopia is leveraging its national airline to maintain an emergency air bridge connecting Asia and Europe with the African continent.