Strategic implications of recent regime changes in Iran and Venezuela for North Korean leadership

Experts analyze if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is unsettled by the removals of leaders in Iran and Venezuela, and how this impacts his nuclear calculus.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 4, 2026, 3:22 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from The Korea Herald/Asia News Network

Analysis of North Korean Condemnation

North Korea issued a sharply worded statement on March 1 through the Korean Central News Agency, denouncing recent military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson described the actions as illegal acts of aggression and a shameless rogue act, though notably avoided mentioning President Donald Trump by name. This calibrated response suggests that while Pyongyang is vocal in its opposition to Western military intervention, it is attempting to maintain a level of diplomatic restraint to avoid a direct personal confrontation with the American administration.

The Survival Logic of Nuclear Deterrence

Experts from Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies suggest that the lesson for Kim Jong Un from the downfalls of Nicolas Maduro and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is centered on survival rather than fear. Dr. Lim Eul chul noted that North Korea likely views Iran's fate as proof that pursuing negotiations does not guarantee security. From this perspective, the recent events are expected to embolden Pyongyang's belief that only a credible and constitutionalized nuclear status can provide a balance of terror sufficient to prevent foreign intervention.

Intelligence Capabilities as an Existential Threat

The precision of the United States intelligence gathering and strike patterns demonstrated in Operation Epic Fury has been flagged as a significant concern for the North Korean leadership. The ability of the US to eliminate Iran's Supreme Leader after years of intelligence accumulation represents what analysts describe as an existential threat to Kim Jong Un. Pyongyang is reportedly fully aware that the swift execution of such operations could potentially be applied to its own leadership, leading to a focus on turning the country into a vast fortress.