South African Motorists Face Massive May Fuel Price Hikes as Middle East Conflict Destabilizes Global Oil

South African fuel prices could rise by R5 per litre in May as Middle East tensions push oil over $100. Read about the R3 levy relief deadline.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 24, 2026, 7:57 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from BusinessTech

Petroleum Recoveries Stabilize Amid Market Volatility

Fresh data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the third week of April reveals a significant reduction in projected fuel price hikes compared to the start of the month. Under-recoveries for petrol and diesel have trended lower, effectively reducing the anticipated increases by as much as 73 percent. In late March, the review period began with a massive under-recovery of R7.88 per litre for 95 petrol. However, as the final week of April approaches, the projected hike for 95 petrol has moderated to R2.14 per litre, while 93 petrol is expected to rise by R1.82 per litre.

Diesel and Paraffin Costs Maintain Upward Pressure

While petrol projections have softened, the wholesale cost of diesel remains a primary concern for the industrial and transport sectors. The under-recovery for both 0.05 percent and 0.005 percent sulphur diesel is currently tracking at approximately R5.92 and R5.93 per litre, respectively. This represents a recovery from the R17.57 per litre shortfall seen earlier in the month, yet still poses a severe financial burden for logistical operations. Additionally, illuminating paraffin, a critical energy source for many households, is slated for a R4.99 per litre increase.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Global Energy Shortfall

The primary driver behind the local price strain is the volatility of international petroleum products, which the CEF identifies as responsible for 99.5 percent of the current shortfall. Global oil prices climbed back over 100 dollars per barrel on Friday, April 24, 2026, following reports of stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Market anxieties have been further heightened by footage of Iranian commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime artery that remains effectively blocked, restricting nearly a fifth of the world's daily oil output.