Regional Conflict in Arabian Gulf Threatens Global Food Security as Fertilizer Costs Surge Thirty-Six Percent

University of Sharjah research shows how the US-Israel-Iran war is inflating global food and fertilizer prices, threatening millions with poverty.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 17, 2026, 7:35 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from University of Sharjah

Geopolitical Flashpoints Triggering Global Hunger

A study published in the journal Global Food Security warns that the ongoing military hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran are creating a hunger crisis that extends far beyond the Middle East. While a fragile ceasefire began on February 28, the underlying maritime blockades and the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz continue to destabilize international trade. Researchers from the University of Sharjah emphasize that this specific waterway handles approximately 20 percent of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas. The resulting surge in energy costs is currently inflating food processing and cold-chain expenses, creating a direct link between Gulf hostilities and rising grocery prices worldwide.

The Strait of Hormuz as a Vital Food Chokepoint

The research team, led by Professor Farah Naja, argues that the Strait of Hormuz must be viewed as a critical food chokepoint rather than just an energy corridor. Between 20 and 30 percent of the world’s fertilizer exports pass through this narrow channel, and since the conflict erupted, urea prices have spiked 36 percent above their pre-war levels. According to the study, approximately 3 to 4 million tonnes of fertilizer trade are now stalled every month. Because modern agriculture requires significant fossil fuel inputs to produce food calories, the closure of these shipping lanes acts as an immediate tax on global farming productivity.

Nutritional Deterioration Among Vulnerable Populations

Beyond the physical shortage of food, the conflict is driving a dangerous shift in global diets. Co-author Mohamad Alameddine points out that as household budgets are squeezed by rising costs, families in the MENA region and East Africa are forced to abandon fresh proteins, fruits, and vegetables. Instead, they are gravitating toward cheaper, ultra-processed, and calorie-dense alternatives that lack essential nutrients. This nutritional transition poses a long-term threat to public health, as deficits in the first 1,000 days of a child's life can lead to irreversible cognitive and developmental damage, potentially costing affected nations up to 3 percent of their GDP.