Rectal Cancer Mortality Accelerates Among Millennials with Hispanic Adults Facing Steepest Rise in Death Rates

New research projects rectal cancer mortality will rise through 2035, with Hispanic adults and millennials facing the fastest-growing death rates in the U.S.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 23, 2026, 6:47 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from EurekAlert!

The Shifting Demographic of Colorectal Mortality

The traditional view of colorectal cancer as a disease primarily affecting the elderly is being challenged by a sharp rise in mortality among younger generations. Analysis of U.S. death records from 1999 to 2023 shows a disturbing acceleration in fatalities for adults between the ages of 20 and 44. According to Mythili Menon Pathiyil of SUNY Upstate Medical University, the core of the millennial generation is now facing a growing crisis that requires immediate clinical attention. While colon cancer rates are rising, they are being significantly outpaced by rectal cancer deaths, which are climbing at a rate two to three times faster across nearly every demographic group.

Predictive Modeling and the 2035 Forecast

To understand the long-term implications of these rising rates, researchers applied an ARIMA machine learning model to project mortality trends over the next decade. The findings suggest that if current patterns persist, rectal cancer deaths will continue to escalate through 2035, specifically among adults aged 35–44. This projection indicates that the current medical infrastructure may be underprepared for a surge in young-onset cases. Pathiyil emphasizes that the data supports a fundamental rethink of how screening and awareness campaigns are structured, as the current trajectory suggests the problem will worsen without a shift in preventative strategy.

Disparities in Geographic and Ethnic Impact

The burden of this rising mortality is not distributed evenly across the United States. The study identified that Hispanic adults are experiencing the fastest-growing rectal cancer death rates of any demographic group analyzed. Geographically, individuals living in Western states saw the steepest increases in mortality, suggesting that regional factors or access to specialized care may play a role in these outcomes. By identifying these specific high-risk populations, health officials may be able to better direct resources toward the communities where the acceleration of the disease is most pronounced.