Public Mandate for Peace Referendum Narrows to Fifty Percent as Societal Polarization Increases Over Territorial Trade Offs

New KIIS survey shows a decline in support for a peace referendum in Ukraine, with opposition rising to 40% amid debates over Donbas and security guarantees.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 16, 2026, 9:46 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

Shifting Public Sentiment on Diplomatic Resolutions

The appetite for a national vote on peace conditions within Ukraine is experiencing a measurable decline as the complexities of the conflict persist. According to the latest data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), support for holding a referendum on a peace agreement has dropped to 50 percent, down from 55 percent just two months ago. This shift is accompanied by a significant rise in active opposition, with the proportion of citizens against such an initiative climbing from 32 percent to 40 percent in the same period.

Categorical Rejection of Specific Territorial Concessions

The survey highlights a deep seated resistance to proposals involving the withdrawal of troops from the Donbas region, even when framed alongside international protection. Approximately 57 percent of respondents characterized the idea of trading regional control for Western security guarantees as categorically unacceptable. Despite this firm stance, a significant 36 percent of the population expressed a willingness to consider such terms, though KIIS researchers noted that this approval was often expressed with a high degree of reluctance.

The Influence of Strategic Framing on Public Approval

The data underscores how the specific wording of a referendum question can drastically alter the outcome of public opinion. When the prospect of peace was packaged with concrete incentives such as European Union membership by 2027 and reliable security guarantees, positive responses surged to 61 percent. Most notably, even among those who initially rejected territorial trade offs, 54 percent indicated they would vote in favor if the question were presented within this broader strategic and economic context.