Prof. Zaki Shalom analyzes the 'Gaddafi Model' as a strategic framework to fragment Iranian central authority

Prof. Zaki Shalom examines how dismantling Iran’s central authority through the 'Gaddafi Model' could fragment the state and end its strategic threat.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 18, 2026, 4:01 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Israel Hayom

The Structural Limitations of Traditional Containment

Contemporary strategic debates regarding the Iranian threat typically oscillate between nuclear containment and leadership-focused regime change. However, Professor Zaki Shalom posits that these approaches overlook the decisive role of state centralization in maintaining long-term strategic capabilities. Highly centralized states possess a unique resilience that allows them to rebuild military and political power even after significant internal upheavals. Shalom suggests that as long as the underlying structure of the Iranian state remains intact, the regime will continue to project influence and maintain its ideological motivations regardless of who occupies the upper echelons of leadership.

Lessons from the Rise and Fall of the Libyan Model

The historical trajectory of Libya under Muammar Gaddafi serves as a primary illustration of how centralization dictates a nation's threat profile. Following the 1969 coup, Gaddafi transformed a decentralized monarchy into a highly concentrated regime by nationalizing oil and eliminating rival power centers. This structural shift allowed Libya to punch above its weight on the global stage, utilizing state-sponsored terrorism as a primary instrument of policy. According to Shalom, even aggressive external measures, such as the 1986 U.S. airstrikes, failed to immediately alter Libyan behavior because the centralized security apparatus remained resilient and unchallenged from within.

The Disintegration of Central Authority in 2011

A fundamental shift occurred during the 2011 uprisings when NATO intervention combined with internal unrest to dismantle the Libyan central government. Crucially, the collapse of the Gaddafi regime was not followed by the establishment of a new central authority, leading to a state of total fragmentation. Shalom points to the 2012 Benghazi consulate attack as the symbolic end of Libya’s status as a coherent strategic actor. While the country ceased to be a state-based nuclear or conventional threat, it transformed into a fractured landscape of rival militias and chronic instability, effectively ending its capacity for coordinated power projection.