Potsdam Institute Study Warns Over One Third Of Land Habitats Face Compound Climate Extremes By 2085

New PIK research shows over a third of animal habitats could face compound disasters like fire and floods by 2085 unless emissions are rapidly reduced.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 24, 2026, 6:52 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from EurekAlert!

The Compound Threat of Sequential Ecological Disasters

The traditional focus on gradual temperature shifts in conservation planning may be masking a much more immediate danger to global biodiversity. According to Stefanie Heinicke, a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the impact of extreme events is currently being underestimated in long-term environmental strategies. The study suggests that the true peril lies not just in isolated incidents, but in the compounding nature of heatwaves, fires, and floods that succeed one another, leaving animal populations with little time to recover between environmental shocks.

Quantifying Habitat Exposure Under High Warming Scenarios

If global warming continues to rise into the latter half of the century, the geographic footprint of ecological vulnerability will expand significantly. According to the research findings, 36 percent of current land habitats are projected to experience multiple types of climate-driven extreme events by 2085. This cumulative pressure is particularly devastating, as previous data from the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires showed that areas recently affected by drought suffered plant and animal population declines that were 27 to 40 percent greater than in regions facing fire alone.

Novel Impact Modeling Reveals Global Wildfire Vulnerability

To achieve these projections, the international team of 18 scientists utilized climate impact models that go beyond simple heat metrics to forecast flooded areas and wildfire risks. According to co-author Katja Frieler, the inclusion of wildfire data revealed a significant blind spot in previous biodiversity assessments, showing a threat level that exceeds even that of drought. By 2050, in a sustained warming scenario, the models project that 74 percent of habitats will face heatwaves, 16 percent will be exposed to wildfire, and 8 percent will contend with drought.