Paul Merson Predicts Premier League Title Race ‘All Over’ If Arsenal Fail to Beat Newcastle

Paul Merson warns Arsenal that failing to beat Newcastle will end their title race. City and Arsenal are currently level on 70 points and +37 goal difference.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 24, 2026, 6:23 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Football365

The Last Chance Saloon for the Gunners

Mikel Arteta’s side enters the weekend in what Paul Merson describes as the "last chance saloon" after back-to-back losses derailed their long stint at the top of the table. Arsenal had led the Premier League for 208 days this season, but a 2-1 loss at the Etihad Stadium followed by a narrow defeat to AFC Bournemouth has seen them overtaken. With only five games remaining, Merson insists that anything less than three points against Newcastle United on Saturday will effectively hand the trophy to Manchester City, given the champions’ historical clinical finish to league campaigns.

The Strategic Advantage of the Schedule

A key element of Merson’s optimism for an Arsenal revival lies in the scheduling of the next two matchweeks. Arsenal are set to play both Newcastle and Fulham before Manchester City take the pitch again, providing a rare opportunity to move six points clear at the top of the table. Merson argues that this "scoreboard pressure" is the only remaining tool in Arsenal's arsenal to force a mistake from a City side that currently looks unstoppable. The pundits note that while City are currently top, the psychological weight of chasing a six-point deficit, even with games in hand, can lead to uncharacteristic errors.

A Title Race Defined by Goal Difference

For the first time in several seasons, the Premier League title could realistically be decided by the narrowest of margins. Following City’s 1-0 victory over Burnley on Wednesday, they sit level with Arsenal on 70 points with an identical +37 goal difference. However, City currently hold the top spot due to having scored 66 goals compared to Arsenal’s 63. Merson noted the potential "heartbreak" of losing a league title simply because of a lower goal tally, drawing parallels to his own experience in 1989 when Arsenal won the league at Anfield via the same tie-breaking criteria.