New State-Level Analysis Finds Wide Disparity in Fatal Police Shootings; Gun Ownership Rates Do Not Explain Racial Gaps

New RAND research finds that Black Americans are 3x more likely to be shot by police, with the widest disparities found in Utah and Oklahoma.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 13, 2026, 7:12 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from PLOS One

The National Landscape of Fatal Police Shootings

In the United States, police officers fatally shoot approximately 1,000 individuals annually. On a national scale, the data presents clear racial and ethnic divisions: Black residents are twice as likely to be killed by police as Hispanic residents and three times as likely as White residents. However, a new study led by Roland Neil of the RAND Corporation argues that national averages mask significant regional volatility. By analyzing data from 2015 to 2020, researchers found that the "danger" associated with police interactions for marginalized groups depends heavily on state geography and local institutional factors rather than just national trends.

State-by-State Variance in Black-White Disparities

While Black individuals were killed at higher rates than White individuals in every single state, the "gap" in those rates varied by a factor of more than 13. In Mississippi, the difference in fatal shooting rates was relatively low at 0.5 per 100,000 residents. Conversely, Utah showed a staggering disparity of 6.72 per 100,000 residents. The study identified the five states with the most extreme Black-White disparities as Utah, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Colorado, and Missouri. Interestingly, the states with the smallest disparities were largely located in the Southeast, including Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, North Carolina, and Georgia.

Hispanic-White Shooting Rates: A Regional Driver

The national disparity regarding Hispanic residents is largely influenced by a handful of Southwestern states. While Hispanic people are more likely to die by police shooting nationally, in many individual states, their death rates are actually lower than those of White residents. The national trend is driven by New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and California—states characterized by large Hispanic populations, high overall rates of police shootings, and particularly wide Hispanic-White disparities. Outside of these specific hubs, the data suggests a different, less pronounced pattern of ethnic disparity compared to the Black-White gap.