New Sociological Study Quantifies Political Impact of Texas Migrant Busing: Abbott’s Policy Boosted Trump’s 2024 Vote Share by 3 Percent

USC study finds Texas Governor Abbott’s migrant busing program increased Trump’s vote share by 3% in affected counties and mobilized Republican turnout.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 11, 2026, 5:33 AM EDT

Source: The information in this article was sourced from the University of Southern California

Measuring the "Migration Shock" on Electoral Outcomes

Between 2022 and 2024, Texas Governor Greg Abbott transported over 100,000 migrants to six Democratic-led "sanctuary" cities: Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. While the program was a major media flashpoint, its actual impact on the ballot box remained speculative until now. According to a new study from the USC Price School of Public Policy and the University of North Texas, this policy created a "migration shock" that effectively shifted the political landscape in counties far from the U.S.-Mexico border, directly benefiting Donald Trump's 2024 campaign.

The Three-Point Shift in Affected Counties

To isolate the impact of the busing program, researchers compared county-level data and Associated Press VoteCast exit polls from the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. According to the study, counties that served as destinations for the migrant buses saw Trump’s vote share grow by more than three percentage points in 2024 compared to previous cycles. This distinctive change was not observed in similar counties that did not receive migrant buses, suggesting the physical arrival of migrants acted as a powerful political catalyst.

Swaying the Swing Vote Through Crime Perceptions

The study identified a specific behavioral shift among "swing voters"—those who supported Joe Biden in 2020 but moved toward Donald Trump in 2024. According to lead author William Scarborough, this shift was heavily driven by concerns over crime. While the researchers noted that extensive data shows immigration is actually associated with lower crime rates, the perception of a threat was what influenced voting. Biden voters in busing destination cities were significantly more likely to switch to Trump if they reported worries about local crime.