National Support Plummets to Four Year Low as Coalition Deadlocks With Opposition in New Poll

The March 2026 Roy Morgan poll shows NZ's National led coalition at its lowest support since the election, with 56% of voters saying the country is on the wrong track.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 7, 2026, 3:47 AM EDT

Source: Stuff

A Statistical Deadlock and the Erosion of National’s Lead

The governing coalition, comprised of National, ACT, and NZ First, currently holds a combined support of 47.5%, trailing slightly behind the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Opposition at 48%. This shift represents a significant erosion of the mandate secured in late 2023. National’s personal support took the hardest hit, falling 4.5 percentage points to 26.5%—a level of unpopularity the party has not experienced in over four years. Political analysts suggest that while the coalition remains a cohesive voting bloc, the lead party is increasingly losing ground to its smaller partners, with NZ First rising to 11% and ACT climbing to 10%.

Public Sentiment and the "Wrong Direction" Milestone

Perhaps more concerning for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon than the party percentages is the broader "Government Confidence Rating," which plummeted 6.5 points to a record low of 78. For the first time since taking office, a clear majority of electors—56%—expressed the view that the nation is on the wrong track. Only 34% of respondents believe New Zealand is heading in the right direction. This pessimistic outlook is closely mirrored by a sharp decline in consumer confidence, which fell 8.8 points in March to its lowest level since 2024, signaling deep-seated economic anxiety among the electorate.

TRANSFORMATIVE ANALYSIS: The data suggests a "cannibalization" effect within the right-leaning bloc. As National attempts to govern from the center-right, its more ideological partners, ACT and NZ First, appear to be successfully peeling away disgruntled National voters who feel the lead party is either moving too slowly or compromising too much. This internal friction, coupled with a resurgent Labour party now sitting at 34% support, puts Luxon in a precarious strategic position. He must now balance the demands of his junior partners to stop the bleeding of his base without alienating the swing voters who are currently fueling the "wrong direction" sentiment.

Demographic Divides: A Tale of Two Electorates