Military analysts warn of protracted conflict as air campaign against Iran enters critical phase

Military analysts warn that the current air campaign against Iran may lead to a long-term conflict as nuclear sites remain protected and proxies stay resilient.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 4, 2026, 3:28 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from Remedia Europe

Strategic Rationale for Preventive Military Action

The transition from diplomatic containment to direct military intervention on February 28 followed years of escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear enrichment program. Analysts suggest that the decision to launch Operation Epic Fury was driven by a closing political window for both United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom face domestic elections later in 2026. After a limited air raid in June 2025 failed to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, military planners concluded that the Iranian regime could no longer be deterred by sanctions or symbolic strikes, leading to the current state of total war.

The Limitations of Air Supremacy

While the coalition has successfully targeted various command and control nodes, experts point out that significant portions of Iran's military capabilities remain intact. Large stocks of missiles and drones are reportedly stored in underground "missile cities" that are largely impervious to standard aerial bombardment. Furthermore, the most critical nuclear facilities at sites like Natanz and Fordow are buried deep within mountainous terrain. Historical precedents suggest that achieving the total destruction of such infrastructure typically requires a ground invasion, an option that currently remains outside the stated four military operational tasks of the coalition.

Shifting Objectives and Exit Strategies

An official statement released on March 2 clarified the coalition's primary military objectives, which include the destruction of the Iranian navy and missile arsenal, the degradation of terrorist proxies, and a guarantee against nuclear acquisition. Notably, the goal of "regime change" originally stated by President Trump was omitted from this more recent list of operational tasks. This shift is interpreted by some as an attempt to define a limited exit strategy, although critics argue that the removal of a totemic religious figure like Khamenei makes a negotiated settlement with the surviving Iranian leadership nearly impossible.