Joint Global Report Warns Middle East Conflict Could Slash African Growth by 0.2%

The AfDB and UN warn that Middle East conflict disruptions could lower African GDP and worsen currency shocks across 31 countries.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 17, 2026, 11:19 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Daily Nigerian.

A Fragile Recovery Under Threat

A joint policy report released by the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Union Commission, and United Nations agencies has delivered a sobering outlook for the continent’s economic future. Presented in Washington, D.C. on April 17, 2026, the document warns that the escalating crisis in the Middle East could shave up to 0.2% off the GDP of African nations. This potential downturn arrives as the continent struggles to sustain a fragile recovery from the triple shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and mounting global trade tensions.

The Strategic Chokehold of Global Trade

Kevin Urama, Chief Economist and Vice President at the AfDB, emphasized the catastrophic potential of disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. As a primary artery for global energy and commerce, any closure or significant impairment of the strait triggers immediate spikes in the prices of hydrocarbons, food, and fertilizers. These price surges are already rippling through African markets, disrupting supply chains and injecting dangerous volatility into capital and foreign exchange markets. The report frames this not just as a regional conflict, but as a direct threat to Africa’s industrial and agricultural inputs.

Critical Dependencies and Currency Shocks

The vulnerability of African economies is rooted in a heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy exports. Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), revealed that 80% of Africa’s imported oil and 50% of its refined petroleum products originate from the region. This dependency has left the continent acutely exposed to external shocks; currently, 31 African countries are grappling with severe currency depreciation. These devaluations are making essential imports more expensive, further fueling domestic inflation and stretching the limited budgets of millions of households.