Jannik Sinner tipped for Miami Open glory as Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev eye Florida resurgence

Expert predictions for the 2026 Miami Open men's draw. Discover why Jannik Sinner is favored to beat Carlos Alcaraz for the title in South Florida.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 19, 2026, 11:14 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Tennis365

Alcaraz Navigates a Minefield in the First Quarter

Carlos Alcaraz enters the South Florida hard courts with the ambition of reclaiming the title he first won in 2022, but his path to the final appears fraught with early obstacles. As the top seed, the Spaniard faces a potentially explosive second-round encounter with young sensation Joao Fonseca, followed by a possible clash with Sebastian Korda. While Alcaraz remains the heavy favorite to emerge from the first quarter, analysts point toward Jack Draper as a significant dark horse. Draper, a former world number four who recently reached the quarter-finals at Indian Wells, possesses the high ceiling necessary to challenge Alcaraz if Taylor Fritz continues to struggle with persistent knee tendonitis.

Openings in the Second Quarter Draw

The sudden withdrawal of world number five Lorenzo Musetti has dramatically shifted the landscape of the second quarter, creating a rare opening for rising stars. Tommy Paul and Flavio Cobolli are projected to battle for dominance in this section, though their recent form suggests a volatile competition. Cobolli recently secured the Mexican Open title, yet his inconsistency against lower-ranked opponents remains a concern. This uncertainty provides a massive opportunity for No 28 seed Arthur Fils, who has maintained an impressive trajectory since returning from a back injury. Having reached the last eight in Miami previously, Fils is tipped to outlast the competition and secure a semi-final berth.

Medvedev Sets Sights on a Miami Revival

The third quarter is defined by a potential heavyweight collision between former champion Daniil Medvedev and the powerful Ben Shelton. Medvedev arrives in Florida riding a wave of resurgent form following deep runs in Dubai and California, signaling that he is once again a primary contender for Masters 1000 silverware. While Shelton remains a formidable opponent on American soil, his recent struggle with illness at Indian Wells may leave him vulnerable to Medvedev’s relentless baseline consistency. The winner of this bracket is expected to face third seed Alexander Zverev, who remains a clinical threat after his recent semi-final appearance in the desert.