Iranian Control of Strait of Hormuz Emerging as Existential Threat to Global Food Security and Political Stability

Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz risks a global food crisis as fertilizer supply chains buckle ahead of critical planting seasons in Africa and Asia.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 21, 2026, 12:20 PM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from CEFP (Center for European Policy Analysis)

The Fertilizer Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz

While international attention has focused on the volatility of energy markets, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses an equally catastrophic risk to global food production. The waterway serves as a primary transit route for the natural gas essential for the manufacturing of DAP and urea fertilizers. Analysts indicate that Iranian interference in the strait has already caused fertilizer prices to fluctuate wildly just as farmers in developing nations prepare for critical planting windows. This disruption threatens to undermine crop yields in regions that lack the financial buffers to weather prolonged supply shocks, effectively weaponizing the global food supply.

Vulnerabilities in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia represents a critical flashpoint for the burgeoning food crisis. The nation’s agricultural system is almost entirely dependent on the Kiremt rainy season, which accounts for up to 95 percent of its annual rainfall. For the 130 million people living in the Ethiopian highlands, any delay in fertilizer delivery due to maritime blockades could result in a total harvest failure. Beyond the humanitarian tragedy, a destabilized Ethiopia risks collapsing the security architecture of the Horn of Africa, potentially empowering extremist groups like al-Shabaab and provoking territorial conflicts with neighbors over dwindling resources.

South Asia Braces for Planting Season Disruptions

The threat extends to South Asia, where the monsoon planting season begins in May. Nations such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are already implementing emergency measures, including national holidays and driving restrictions, to manage soaring fuel costs. If fertilizer prices continue to climb due to the tactical closing and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting harvest deficit could trigger political upheaval across a region home to billions. Historical precedents from the 2007–08 global food crisis suggest that such price spikes lead directly to civil unrest and the collapse of vulnerable governments.