Inflation vs. Growth: ANZ Forecasts Early OCR Hikes Amid Middle East Tensions

ANZ, New Zealand's largest bank, has revised its forecast, now expecting three OCR increases this year starting in July to combat persistent inflation.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 14, 2026, 4:38 AM EDT

Source: RNZ Pacific

The New Forecast

ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner has outlined a "lower but earlier" trajectory for interest rates:

Timing: Three hikes now expected in July, September, and October 2026.

The Ceiling: The bank expects the OCR to peak at 3% (down from a previous forecast of 3.5%).

Current Rate: The OCR currently sits at 2.25%.

ASB economists have echoed this sentiment, though they predict a slightly later start in September, with a peak of 3.25% by mid-2027.