IDF Northern Command Chief Admits Major Intelligence Failure Regarding Hezbollah’s Post-2024 Military Strength

Major General Rafi Milo admits a "gap" in IDF intelligence regarding Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities and launchers following the 2024 Lebanon offensive.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 4, 2026, 4:45 PM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from The Times of Israel

A Rare Admission of Intelligence Miscalculation

In a private meeting with residents of the northern kibbutz Misgav Am, Major General Rafi Milo, chief of the IDF’s Northern Command, conceded that security officials fundamentally misjudged the degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities. According to audio aired by Channel 12 news, Milo admitted that the conclusion of "Operation Northern Arrows" in 2024 left the military with a false sense of security regarding the terror group's remaining assets. This admission marks a stark departure from previous official narratives that suggested the 2024 ground operation in southern Lebanon had decisively neutralized the group’s ability to conduct large-scale cross-border strikes.

The Persistence of Steep-Trajectory Fire

The "gap" in intelligence has become painfully apparent through the sustained force of Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel’s northern communities. Milo addressed the concerns of residents regarding the ongoing steep-trajectory rocket fire, which has continued despite the heavy aerial and ground campaigns of the previous year. While the General noted that the current volume of launches is not yet at "very, very large amounts" and is primarily focused on IDF positions, the psychological and physical toll on border towns remains severe. The persistence of these launches indicates that Hezbollah’s command-and-control infrastructure survived the 2024 offensive far more intact than previously estimated.

Revised Assessments Following Holiday Barrages

The IDF’s internal outlook shifted dramatically following a series of heavy rocket barrages that targeted Israel during the Passover holiday. Military officials now reportedly believe that Hezbollah maintains an arsenal consisting of tens of thousands of rockets and hundreds of mobile launchers. This revised estimate suggests that the 2024 campaign only scratched the surface of the group’s deep-seated military infrastructure. The realization that the group can still mobilize significant firepower has forced Northern Command to re-evaluate its defensive posture and the long-term viability of the current border security strategy.