Global Grasslands Face 50 Percent Contraction by 2100 as Aridity and Climate Shifts Accelerate

A new study warns that climate change could destroy half of Earth's grasslands by 2100. Discover the impact on carbon storage and global food security.

By: AXL Media

Published: Feb 26, 2026, 11:06 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from Earth.Org

The Accelerating Vulnerability of Global Pastoral Lands

New environmental modeling suggests that the world's grasslands, which cover nearly 40% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, are facing a catastrophic contraction due to intensifying climate pressures. According to research published in the journal Nature Communications, under high-emission scenarios, nearly half of current grassland areas could be lost or severely degraded by 2100. This shift is primarily driven by increasing aridity and the encroachment of desertification, which fundamentally alters the soil composition and water retention capabilities of these vital ecosystems.

Disruption of the Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Cycle

Grasslands play a disproportionately large role in the global carbon cycle, acting as a massive underground carbon sink that rivals the storage capacity of many forests. Unlike trees, which store carbon in their biomass above ground, grasses sequester carbon in extensive root systems and the surrounding soil. The study indicates that the loss of these lands would not only stop future sequestration but could potentially trigger the release of centuries of stored carbon back into the atmosphere. This feedback loop threatens to accelerate global warming, turning a primary climate mitigation tool into a significant source of emissions.

The Socioeconomic Toll on Global Livestock and Food Security

The projected decline of these ecosystems poses an immediate threat to the livelihoods of more than 800 million people who rely on rangelands for livestock production. As grasslands shrink, the carrying capacity of the land for cattle, sheep, and goats diminishes, leading to increased competition for dwindling resources and higher costs for meat and dairy products globally. Researchers emphasize that the most severe impacts are likely to be felt in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, where pastoralism is a cornerstone of the regional economy and food stability.