Global Energy Crisis Deepens As Analysts Predict Brent Crude Could Surge Past $200 Amid Near-Closure Of Strait Of Hormuz

Energy analysts warn Brent crude may hit $200/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially triggering a multi-year global recession.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 1, 2026, 9:25 AM EDT

Source: The information in this article was sourced from LEADERSHIP

Projecting Triple-Digit Oil Prices Amid Maritime Blockade

Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of energy consultancy FGE NexantECA, has issued a stark warning that global oil prices could soon hit $200 per barrel or higher. The primary driver behind this projection is the current near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery for global energy trade. Fesharaki noted that despite the influence of geopolitical sentiment and social media commentary on the market, the physical reality is that approximately 100 million barrels of oil are failing to pass through the strait every week. If the situation does not stabilize within the next two months, the expert suggests that market fundamentals will push prices to unprecedented levels regardless of diplomatic intervention.

The Economic Impact of Astronomical Supply Losses

The scale of the current disruption is being described by analysts as catastrophic for global energy logistics. With an estimated 400 million barrels of oil stalled every month, the cumulative loss to the market is expected to force radical structural adjustments in trade flows. FGE NexantECA initially assumed the crisis would last roughly a month, but has since extended its projections to a 12-week timeframe. Under a scenario where only 10% of typical flows remain active, analysts predict that spot gas prices could also skyrocket to $40.5 per MMBtu, further straining the global economy and forcing massive demand destruction.

IEA Interventions and Strategic Stock Releases

In response to the tightening supply, the International Energy Agency is anticipated to authorize another release of strategic petroleum reserves by mid-April. A subsequent release may be necessary by June if the "world without Hormuz" scenario persists. While these releases are intended to stabilize the market, experts warn that they may only provide temporary relief if the blockade remains a long-term fixture of the geopolitical landscape. The persistence of these disruptions is increasingly viewed as a credible scenario that could redefine global energy security for years to come.