Global Crude Prices Surge as Tanker Gridlock at Strait of Hormuz Threatens 1970s-Style Oil Embargo Crisis

Oil prices jump 6% as 15 million barrels per day are stalled at the Strait of Hormuz. Read how the US-Iran war could trigger a 1970s-style energy embargo.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 2, 2026, 4:54 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from CNA

Energy Markets Braced for Multi-Week Combat Operations

The global energy landscape is facing a period of intense volatility as military conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of a swift de-escalation. On March 2, Brent crude jumped 6.4 percent to $77.57, having briefly touched a peak of $82.00 during early trading sessions, while US crude rose to $71.17. President Donald Trump has indicated that the current offensive against Iranian targets could persist for at least four more weeks, or until specific US strategic objectives are met. This prolonged timeline has spooked investors who fear that a sustained military campaign will permanently disrupt the fragile global economic recovery and trigger a secondary wave of inflationary pressure.

Marine Tracking Reveals Tanker Congestion at Critical Chokepoint

While the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially declared closed, a de facto blockade is forming as commercial vessels hesitate to enter the contested waterway. Marine tracking data currently shows a massive accumulation of tankers on both sides of the strait, with many crews and operators unwilling to risk missile fire or unable to secure the necessary maritime insurance for the voyage. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted that this effective halt in traffic is preventing approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil from reaching the global market daily. Without a swift signal of de-escalation, experts anticipate a significant and perhaps permanent upward repricing of energy costs.

Historical Parallels to the 1970s Energy Crisis

Aviation and energy analysts are increasingly drawing comparisons between the current conflict and the 1973-1974 Middle East oil embargo, which saw prices skyrocket by 300 percent. Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President at Wood Mackenzie, suggested that eclipsing historical records is "very achievable" in today's hypersensitive market. During the 1970s crisis, oil reached the equivalent of $90 per barrel in 2026 inflation-adjusted terms. Given the current disruption to 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and seaborne oil, the potential for a catastrophic supply shock is higher than at any point in the last five decades, potentially forcing Western economies into a period of forced rationing.