Glencore Projects Normalization of Congo Cobalt Exports as Restricted Supply Drives 160 Percent Price Surge

Glencore expects Congo cobalt shipments to stabilize under 2026 quotas after restricted supply led to a 160 percent spike in global metal prices.

By: AXL Media

Published: May 2, 2026, 6:11 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Reuters

Strategic Alignment with DRC Export Quotas

The global commodities giant Glencore has signaled a shift toward stability in its central African operations, projecting that cobalt shipments will normalize throughout the current year. This adjustment follows a period of significant volatility triggered by the Congolese government’s decision to halt exports in early 2025. According to Glencore’s first quarter production report, the company is now navigating a rigid quota system designed by the Democratic Republic of Congo to manage global supply and support pricing. The firm confirmed that its combined allocation for 2026, which includes carryover from the previous year, stands at 22,800 tons.

Supply Constraints Trigger Massive Price Rally

The impact of Congo’s aggressive export restrictions has been felt across the global battery metals market, with cobalt prices skyrocketing 160 percent since February 2025. Prices have reached approximately 57,320 dollars per metric ton as a direct result of the shortages created by the DRC’s move to tighten the market. This surge marks a dramatic recovery from the nine year lows that initially prompted the government’s intervention. Industry analysts suggest that the persistent shortage has fundamentally reshaped the cost structure for electronics and electric vehicle manufacturers who rely on Congolese ore.

Production Slump and Inventory Management

During the first quarter of 2026, Glencore reported a sharp 39 percent decline in cobalt production compared to the same period last year, totaling only 5,800 tons. To mitigate the financial burden of export limits, the company has intentionally postponed final processing stages for its raw materials. According to the miner, this strategy avoids unnecessary costs while sales remain restricted by the government mandate. Currently, cobalt produced at the Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda operations that exceeds allocated quotas is being stored within the DRC to be sold only when future quotas allow.