Frontrunner Ivan Cepeda Widens Lead in Colombia’s Presidential Race as Right-Wing Rivals Divide Vote

Leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda surges to 44.3% in the latest Invamer poll, widening his lead over far-right rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 27, 2026, 10:36 AM EDT

Source: Colombia Report

Cepeda’s Surge Toward a First-Round Victory

Senator Ivan Cepeda, a prominent ally of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, has seen a significant boost in momentum just one month ahead of the first round of voting. The latest poll from Invamer shows Cepeda jumping from 37.1% in February to 44.3% in April. This nearly 7-point surge puts him within striking distance of the 50% threshold required to win the presidency on May 31 without a runoff. Campaign manager Senator Maria Jose Pizarro emphasized that the current strategy is focused entirely on securing an outright victory to avoid the unpredictability of a second round.

The Far-Right Split: De la Espriella vs. Valencia

The conservative wing of Colombian politics remains deeply fractured between two high-profile figures. Lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella currently holds the second-place spot with 21.5%, a modest increase from his 18.9% in February. However, he is being closely trailed by Senator Paloma Valencia, whose support doubled from 10% to 19.8% following her victory in the "Uribista" primary in March. Despite the looming threat of another progressive administration, neither candidate has been willing to withdraw in favor of a coalition, effectively splitting the far-right electorate.

The Collapse of the Political Center

While the extremes of the political spectrum are gaining ground, self-proclaimed centrist candidates are facing a total collapse in support. Former Bogota Mayor Claudia Lopez saw her numbers plummet from 11.7% to a marginal 3.6%. Similarly, former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo, a perennial figure in Colombian politics, dropped to just 2.5%. Analysts suggest that the polarized environment has left little room for middle-ground rhetoric, as voters align themselves with either the continuation of Petro’s progressive agenda or a hard-line conservative reversal.