Former ambassador warns of no winners in current Pakistan and Afghanistan open war as border remains closed

Former Ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan analyzes the unwinnable Pakistan-Afghanistan war and calls for regional mediation by China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 6, 2026, 6:17 AM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from The Nation

Strategic Deadlock and Diplomatic Freeze

The military conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached a critical impasse, with neither nation positioned to achieve a definitive victory. Analysis of the situation suggests that Pakistan’s patience with the Afghan Taliban has been exhausted, leading to an endgame aimed at either forcing compliance regarding the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or pursuing regime change through crushing military blows. This escalation has resulted in an unprecedented diplomatic freeze where no bilateral channels of communication remain active. Furthermore, the border has been closed since October 2025, halting all movement of people, trade, and transit for the past six months.

The Narrowing Base of Bilateral Relations

A primary challenge facing Pakistan’s Afghan policy is the narrowing base of its relations within Afghan society, a decline that has spanned several decades. In the 1980s, Pakistan enjoyed significant goodwill while supporting the Afghan jihad and hosting millions of refugees. However, during the subsequent period of United States and NATO presence, the perception grew that Pakistan’s support was limited to the Taliban against the will of the majority of Afghans. Over the last four years, the gap between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban has become increasingly difficult to bridge, further complicating the trust deficient relationship.

Taliban Isolation and Internal Policies

Since taking power in 2021, the Afghan Taliban have established a hardline and exclusive regime that has deepened their international isolation. The group has reneged on several promises made during the Doha process, particularly concerning a representative government and the protection of human rights, including girls' education and women's empowerment. This lack of legitimacy is compounded by the Taliban's inability or unwillingness to participate in international counter-terrorism frameworks. Intelligence assessments, including those from UN Security Council mechanisms, indicate that Afghanistan continues to provide sanctuary for various global and regional terrorist groups.