Fitch Affirms Nigeria’s ‘B’ Rating With Stable Outlook Citing Improved Monetary Framework and Strong Reserves

Fitch maintains Nigeria’s ‘B’ rating, citing strong $47bn reserves and policy reforms, though inflation and 2027 election spending pose risks.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 14, 2026, 7:44 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Leadership News

Resilience Amidst Macroeconomic Adjustments

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’, signaling a level of confidence in the country’s current economic trajectory. The agency’s decision to maintain a stable outlook is rooted in several foundational strengths, including Nigeria’s massive economy, extensive oil and gas reserves, and a domestic debt market that remains relatively developed and liquid. Most notably, Fitch highlighted the improved monetary and exchange rate policy framework as a key driver for the affirmation, suggesting that recent central bank interventions are beginning to provide a more predictable environment for international investors.

Inflationary Trends and Monetary Easing

Despite the positive outlook, the report notes that inflation remains a significant hurdle for the Nigerian economy. While the disinflation trend that began in early 2025 is expected to continue, Fitch projects that inflation will average approximately 16 percent throughout 2026. This is a marked improvement from the 23 percent recorded in 2024, yet it remains significantly higher than the ‘B’ rating peer median of 5.5 percent. The Central Bank of Nigeria has responded to these moderating figures by easing its monetary stance, recently cutting the policy rate twice to 26.5 percent after a prolonged period of aggressive tightening.

Strong External Buffer and Reserve Management

Nigeria’s external position is described as a pillar of stability in the Fitch report. Gross reserves reached $49.4 billion at the end of March 2026, a substantial recovery from the $32 billion reported in mid-2024. Although the agency forecasts a marginal decline to $47 billion by the end of the year due to rising spending pressures, these reserves are expected to cover seven months of current external payments. Furthermore, Fitch estimates that net reserves have improved dramatically, rising from roughly $4 billion at the end of 2023 to an estimated $35 billion, largely due to the central bank’s success in unwinding foreign exchange swaps with local commercial banks.