Eurasian Development Bank Advocates "Middle-Path" Strategy To Resolve Central Asia’s Looming 40% Energy Demand Spike By 2030

Experts at the EDB propose a balanced energy mix for Central Asia to meet a 40% demand increase by 2030 while maintaining affordability and sustainability.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 27, 2026, 8:59 AM EDT

Source: The information in this article was sourced from The Astana Times

Navigating the Energy Trilemma in Central Asia

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has identified the "Energy Trilemma"—a framework balancing energy security, equity (affordability), and environmental sustainability—as the essential guide for the region's modernization. Arman Akhunbayev, head of the EDB’s Industry Analysis Center, emphasized that electricity consumption in Central Asia is projected to surge by 40% by 2030. To meet this demand without catastrophic shortages, the region must install 62.8 gigawatts of new generating capacity by 2035. The proposed middle-path strategy avoids the pitfalls of over-reliance on a single source, instead advocating for a diversified mix that includes solar, wind, gas, hydropower, and nuclear energy.

The Accelerating Global Shift Toward Renewables

The global energy landscape has shifted dramatically, with 92% of new capacity in 2024 coming from renewable sources. Akhunbayev noted that solar technology costs have plummeted by 70% since 2015, while wind power costs have fallen by 55%. However, clean generation alone cannot currently keep pace with the rapid industrial growth, digitalization, and urbanization occurring in Central Asian nations. The EDB argues that while renewables are the cheapest new-build option, they lack the "balancing capacity" required for grid stability. Consequently, the transition must utilize flexibility tools such as battery storage, peak gas plants, and demand management to prevent price shocks.

Structural Vulnerabilities and Regional Disparities

EDB senior analyst Demir Kabylbayev pointed out that Central Asia’s energy infrastructure is aging, with over half of existing power plants and transmission networks in urgent need of modernization. The region currently suffers from high technical losses in its grids compared to developed nations. A comparative analysis highlights distinct national challenges: Kazakhstan’s heavy reliance on coal hampers its environmental sustainability, while Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic are overly dependent on hydropower. This hydropower reliance makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change and seasonal river inflow fluctuations, often leading to winter power shortages when reservoir levels are low.