Eskom Declares Load Shedding Over for Winter 2026 as Energy Availability Factor Surges to 65%

Eskom declares the power system stable for winter 2026 with a 6GW surplus. Learn how diesel savings and unplanned outage reductions ended load shedding.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 23, 2026, 3:32 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from BusinessTech

The Institutionalization of the Generation Recovery Plan

South Africa is approaching the 2026 winter season with its most resilient power grid in years, as Eskom officially moves beyond emergency recovery into a phase of sustained energy security. The utility’s Generation Recovery Plan has become a permanent fixture of daily operations, resulting in a consistent energy supply of 98.9% over the last financial year. This represents a dramatic industrial turnaround from just two years ago, when supply consistency was recorded at a mere 9%, signaling a "new normal" for a grid that has now remained load shedding free for 341 consecutive days.

Technical Milestones in Unplanned Outage Reduction

The stabilization of the national grid is primarily the result of a significant 7.4GW reduction in unplanned losses, which declined from 16.5GW to 9.1GW by the end of March 2026. This technical efficiency has allowed Eskom to lower its base case assumption for unplanned outages to 12GW, providing a surplus peak capacity of approximately 6GW for the winter period. Even under scenarios of extreme system stress, the utility maintains that its current reserve margins are sufficient to prevent the implementation of rotating blackouts through August 2026.

Fiscal Discipline and the Drastic Reduction in Diesel Spend

Eskom has successfully curtailed its reliance on expensive open cycle gas turbines, leading to a R26.9 billion reduction in diesel expenditure compared to the 2023 financial year. For the current fiscal cycle, diesel costs are estimated at R6.4 billion, a year on year improvement of R10 billion. These savings coincide with a 10.8 percentage point increase in the Energy Availability Factor, which climbed to 65.35%. While the long term goal remains 70%, the utility exceeded this benchmark more than 80 times during the previous year, reflecting a stabilized fleet performance.