Erosion of International Arms Control Framework Sparks Proliferation Fears

French officials warn of an eroding arms control framework as Cold War era treaties expire and geopolitical instability drives a new global nuclear arms race.

By: AXL Media

Published: Feb 25, 2026, 8:13 AM EST

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Politico

The Collapse of Historic Arms Control Treaties

French officials point to a significant erosion of the international arms control framework that has governed nuclear arsenals since the Cold War. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty ended in 2019, and the New START agreement, which capped American and Russian strategic warheads, expired earlier this month without a renewal plan. This vacuum in formal treaties has left the international non-proliferation regime under mounting pressure as nuclear armed countries no longer shy away from military confrontations.

Shifting Doctrines and Emerging Nuclear Ambitions

The global security landscape is being reshaped by aggressive doctrinal changes and expansion efforts by major powers. Russia has repeatedly made nuclear threats and lowered its threshold for a nuclear strike, while China is projected to increase its arsenal to approximately 1,000 warheads by 2030. Beyond the established nuclear powers, countries like Iran continue to seek their own capabilities, and established democracies in Europe and Asia are increasingly discussing homegrown deterrents.

Security Guarantees and the Role of Washington

A major driver of current proliferation risks is a growing feeling of insecurity among nations that previously relied on external security guarantees. French officials made a thinly veiled reference to the geopolitical shifts in Washington under President Donald Trump, suggesting that some allies no longer feel assured of American protection. This uncertainty has led to active discussions in South Korea and Japan regarding independent deterrents, while Polish President Karol Nawrocki recently stated that Poland should develop its own nuclear defenses in response to the threat from Moscow.