Ending birthright citizenship could create 6.4 million undocumented U.S. births by 2050 with major impact on Asian and Latino families

Penn State researchers find ending birthright citizenship could create 6.4 million undocumented births by 2050, hitting Asian and Latino families hardest.

By: AXL Intelligence

Published: Mar 31, 2026, 11:31 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Penn State

Projections of a New Undocumented Generation

The long-standing American principle of birthright citizenship, established by the 14th Amendment in 1868, faces a potential legislative or judicial reversal that could fundamentally alter the demographic landscape of the United States. According to researchers at Penn State, if the current policy is rescinded, the number of children born on U.S. soil without a defined legal status could reach 6.4 million by the year 2050. This shift would create a massive "unauthorized" population composed of children who, under current law, would be recognized as natural-born citizens regardless of their parents' immigration status.

The Disproportionate Impact on Latino Communities

The study, published in the journal Demography, highlights that the largest absolute impact of this policy change would fall upon Latino immigrants. Researchers project that by 2050, Latino individuals would comprise more than 90% of the U.S.-born population living without legal status. Under the most aggressive policy scenario, which mirrors language slated for Supreme Court arguments, roughly 93% of unauthorized births would occur within Latino families. This would result in a significant expansion of the undocumented population among a demographic that already faces complex systemic hurdles within the current immigration framework.

Asian Families and the Shift in Visa Status

While the absolute numbers are highest for Latinos, the Asian immigrant population would experience the most dramatic relative increase in unauthorized births. The study found a fivefold increase in projected undocumented Asian births, a trend attributed to the inclusion of parents on non-immigrant visas, such as those for international students or specialized workers. Professor Nicole Kreisberg noted that many Asian families arrive legally on temporary visas and contribute to the economy for a decade or more before obtaining permanent residency. Under the proposed change, children born during this family-building period would be denied citizenship despite their parents following every legal channel.