Economists Warn of Potential May OCR Hike Amid "Ugly" Inflation Outlook

Infometrics CEO Brad Olsen warns of a potential May interest rate hike as soaring fuel costs and underlying price pressures drive NZ inflation expectations higher.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 18, 2026, 4:10 AM EDT

Source: RNZ Pacific

The Spending Paradox: Paying More for Less

Infometrics CEO Brad Olsen highlighted a concerning trend in the latest Stats NZ data. While total fuel spending in March 2026 surpassed $580 million a 10% increase from the previous year actual volumes purchased have dropped.

Volume Decline: Fuel volumes likely fell by about 4% as households began "parking up" their cars to avoid high refill costs.

Price Surge: Weighted average fuel prices were estimated to be 14% higher in March compared to a year ago.

Diesel Demand: Unlike petrol, diesel volumes are expected to remain high because the fuel is an essential requirement for moving goods across the economy.

The "Ugly" Inflation Picture